Defending Jobs in a Trade War: Canadian Perspectives on Work, Security, and Economic Trust is a joint research project between the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Canada and the Broadbent Institute. The survey was conducted in the field by Viewpoints Research.

Clement Nocos is the Director of Policy and Engagement at the Broadbent Institute and Jordan Leichnitz is the Canada Director for the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

The authors would also like to thank Natalie Pilla, Research Manager at Viewpoints Research, for her instrumental support in this analysis.

About the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

About the Broadbent Institute

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Presentation and Panel Discussion

The report was presented by Jordan Leichnitz at the 2026 Progress Summit in a session entitled Defending Jobs in a Trade War with a moderated panel discussion on the reports findings, including:

Frederike Boll, Social Democratic Party of Germany, Director of Strategic Planning
DT Cochrane, Canadian Labour Congress, Senior Economist
Marzian Alam, Ontario NDP Caucus, Director of Research

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Key Findings

[1] The economic growth agenda isn’t made for everyone. Most Canadians don’t think that economic growth under Prime Minister Carney’s plans will change their household’s financial situation.

• Nearly half (46%) of Canadians describe their personal economic situation as just fair or poor (“managing, with little room for extras”, “falling behind” or “can’t cover basic needs”).
• Only 24% of Canadians believe their household will be better off financially under the Prime Minister’s growth plan – 42% think it will stay the same, and 15% think it will get worse.

[2] Generational divides matter. Young workers are pessimistic but open to intervention; older voters see better times ahead but distrust government solutions.

• Over half of 18–34-year-olds (52%) say Canada’s best years are behind us, yet they’re most likely to think Carney’s plan will help them (35%) and would join a union if offered (43% somewhat likely).
• Meanwhile, 55+ voters are optimistic about Canada’s future (45% best ahead) but skeptical of government interventions like jobs guarantee programs.

[3] Jobs are about more than just money – but pay matters. Canadians see jobs as about both earning and contributing, but right now, a “good job” is one that pays well.

• While most people personally feel secure in their jobs, they sense insecurity in the labour market and struggle to afford everyday life.
• 2 in 5 Canadians see self-employment or running your own business as the best way to get ahead in this economy.

[4] Unions are viewed as defenders of jobs – politicians are not. Union membership is linked to a sense of economic security, while politicians are largely seen as absent in moments of local economic crisis.

• Canadians in union households are twice as likely to expect their finances will improve (19% vs 10% non-union), and more likely to rate the economy positively.
• More than a third (36%) say union representatives appear during factory closures or layoffs, compared to just 13% of federal politicians.
  

[5] Grounded policy resonates best right now. Canadians generally support government involvement to promote job protection, creation and economic security, but doubt the government’s ability to deliver.

• While 34% of Canadians want the government to guarantee jobs, 47% say a don’t trust the federal government to handle a jobs guarantee.
• Views on universal basic income are divided, and the lowest income Canadians are the most uncertain about it.
• Raising the minimum wage and improving work-life balance are tied as the top priorities for workers at 37% each.
• AI anxiety is high: nearly 6 in 10 Canadians say AI will hurt workers, and a quarter want AI regulation as a top priority.

Methodology

This survey was conducted by Viewpoints Research with respondents who live across Canada.

The survey included weighting to ensure responses reflect the actual distribution of the population by age, gender and region using Statistics Canada Census 2021 data. The survey was conducted in English only and was not fielded in Quebec. It was conducted online using a web survey with 1014 responses participating between January 16^th to 26^th, 2026. The margin of error for an equivalent random sample of the same size is +/- 3%.

Throughout this report, percentages presented have been rounded up, and sums presented used raw figures before rounding. Social classes, such as working-class, middle-class, and upper-class identities are self-identified by respondents.

To see the complete list of survey questions, please contact info@viewpoints.ca

Introduction

In the wake of the economic war launched by the United States President Trump, the present economic outlook for Canada undoubtedly trends towards pessimism and uncertainty. The Bank of Canada’s January 2026 headline outlook sees US tariffs and the unpredictability of future trade agreements as major disruptions to the US economy, leading to economic adjustments that are still incomplete while geopolitical risks remain elevated (Bank of Canada, January 2026). Ordinary Canadians, worried about this dire outlook and already feeling the effects of a cost-of-living crisis, are looking to the Government of Canada for a policy response to protect Canadian jobs and the economy.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Prime Minister Mark Carney proclaimed, “the old order is not coming back.” For many observers, he laid out a new paradigm for Canada’s economic approach, with a re-orientation away from ever-deepening economic interdependence with the United States. In the same speech, Prime Minister Carney touted his economic priorities: “Since my government took office, we have cut taxes on incomes, capital gains and business investment, we have removed all federal barriers to interprovincial trade, and we are fast-tracking a trillion dollars of investment in energy, AI, critical minerals, new trade corridors, and beyond. We are doubling our defence spending by 2030 and are doing so in ways that builds our domestic industries.” These priorities are laid out in the Carney government’s “nation-building” agenda; a list of priority projects for the “national interest” meant to create jobs and reinforce the Canadian economy against US unreliability and global uncertainty.

However, whole sectors of the economy do not appear on the Carney government’s nation-building agenda. The government’s upgraded Major Projects Office is organized to coordinate and streamline approvals for “national interest projects” including expanded fossil fuel infrastructure, mining projects, and other commodity supply chain infrastructure. New housing construction, though not within the purview of “national interest,” is to be delivered under the government’s new Build Canada Homes agency.

With a new Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation at the cabinet table, the Carney government is focusing on AI adoption and a new technology strategy to increase economic productivity. To advance these industries, the Carney government has offered tax deductions to corporations and other incentives without tying them to promises of job creation. Meanwhile, jobs in health care, education and other social sectors, as well as Canadian manufacturing jobs, are not mentioned as priority interests (Government of Canada, 2026).

A year into the second Trump presidency, Canadians are feeling the effects of this economic turmoil. From January 2025 to January 2026, manufacturing employment across Canada has declined by -2.7% while private sector employment grew by 0.8% and self-employment declined by -1.6% at the same time. Through this first year of economic upheaval since US President Donald Trump’s re-election, Canadian public sector employment growth (1.6%) has helped offset these losses (Statistics Canada, February 6, 2026). However, these public sector gains are unlikely to hold as the Carney government initiates significant workforce adjustments on the federal public service (PIPSC, January 16, 2026).

Though the government’s approach to this economic crisis, on the surface, may resemble something of a “New Deal” Keynesian response and an industrial policy steer Canadian industry away from US reliance, these projects do not rely on new public investment; rather, they are mostly predicated on stimulating private sector investment (something that has historically been a challenge in Canada, where business investment per worker ranks among the lowest in the OECD).

The Carney government’s recent announcements do little to put defending existing jobs at the forefront of their economic plan; rather, significant job cuts in the public service and the promise of future jobs tied to major projects forms the basis of this economic agenda. Notably, the current approach of the Carney government to defending Canada’s economy appears to have different priorities from past responses to economic emergencies like the 2008 Financial Crisis or COVID-19 shutdown.

At this point, Canada’s economy teeters between stagnation and recession indicators. While the US trade war has thrown in a substantial element of uncertainty into the Canadian economic outlook, other sources of uncertainty such as climate change, chronic underinvestment in health care, elder care, childcare, education, and other social sectors, influenced by all levels of government, and Canada’s housing market certainly influence this outlook as well.

Only a few years removed from the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, over the past year Canadians have been battered by tariff-related economic uncertainty, the high cost of living, and rising unemployment. Many expect a government response to the crisis, but do they believe that the Carney government’s priorities meet this moment? Who do Canadians feel they can count on to protect their jobs, help their communities through tough times, and what is the household-level economic future they envision? This study seeks to answer these questions at a pivotal moment for the country.